Martin Wainwright argues in The Guardian today that allocating university places, council housing, and even charitable grants by lottery is “as rational a method as any.” Some fundraisers might think grantseeking can be a lottery itself, so is this suggestion worth taking seriously?Read Analysis: the lottery of life in The Guardian. Howard Lake | 20 September 2000 | News 15 total views, 2 views today AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to LinkedInLinkedInShare to EmailEmailShare to WhatsAppWhatsAppShare to MessengerMessengerShare to MoreAddThis AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to LinkedInLinkedInShare to EmailEmailShare to WhatsAppWhatsAppShare to MessengerMessengerShare to MoreAddThis Making grantmaking even more of a lottery? Advertisement About Howard Lake Howard Lake is a digital fundraising entrepreneur. Publisher of UK Fundraising, the world’s first web resource for professional fundraisers, since 1994. Trainer and consultant in digital fundraising. Founder of Fundraising Camp and co-founder of GoodJobs.org.uk. Researching massive growth in giving.
Arcata >> It was an opening seven minutes that left just about anybody wearing any semblance of green at the Redwood Bowl with not much time to catch their breath between scoring plays.It certainly had offensive linemen sprinting off the field as fast as ever, that’s for sure.Rob Smith couldn’t have drawn up any better start than what 19th-ranked Humboldt State had in its impressive 56-13 win over Chadron State College on Saturday night. The Jacks not only struck for touchdowns on their first …
OFFICIAL TRANSCRIPTChris Briley: Hey everybody, welcome to the Green Architects’ Lounge podcast. I’m your host, Chris Briley.Phil Kaplan: And I’m your host, Phil Kaplan. How’re you doing, Chris?Chris: I’m doing absolutely great, Phil. Yourself?Phil: Excellent! I’m doing great. I noticed it was nice and chilly for the first time last night. Did you see frost?Chris: I don’t know if I saw frost, but dude, I felt it. I woke up and took the kids out to the bus and went “Whoa!” Went out in a T-shirt and was like “This bus better hurry up!”Phil: Welcome to fall. It’s all downhill from here.Chris: So they say. Fall season brings what?Phil: It brings apples — Am I right?Chris: Let’s go right to the cocktails. Not only is it fall, but we got the news that Steve Jobs passed away. Our cocktail is in honor of Steve Jobs and also fall. It’s called the Northern Spy.Phil: Man, it’s hot.[The guys share the recipe.]Phil: It’s getting a little chillier. Aren’t we glad we live in warm homes, Chris?Chris: Yes, we are. Energy-efficient one.Phil: And we’re glad we’re building them and designing them…Chris: That’s right. The title of this podcast says that we’ve designed you a great house; now we have to make it a reality. There’s the challenge of bringing in a builder, controlling the budget and schedule, and making this thing happen. Not the easiest thing in the world to do…Phil: And then there’s the inconvenience of having a client involved… I mean, someone’s gotta pay for it. No, really, we love our clients — especially when we have a great team. Spectacular things happen — intense joy and creation. One of the things we can talk about is what defines success.Chris: So, what’s a successful project?Phil: The number one thing is a happy client. If the client is happy and they’re going to recommend you after the fact, and they’re going to live in this house…Chris: You’ll sleep at night if you know the client is happy.Phil: It also helps if the architect is happy and likes the design.Chris: If it’s one you’re passionate about and excited to show your friends, then that is special.Phil: Things come together, and the client shares your goals and believes in your vision. It also helps if you make a little money on it. And the builder has to have great satisfaction — he’s out there all the time. He also has to make money on it.Chris: And be proud of what he’s done. The ultimate successful project, then, is happy client, happy architect, happy builder.Phil: We can get there. It’s been done. Does it happen most of the time? I’d say not. We’re in a tricky profession. We’re here to try to resolve some of these issues. And in Part 2, we’ll talk directly with some builders to figure out what we need to do to come together as teams and make it work better.Chris: Clients want to understand the process. Lots of times they come to us and say they’ve never hired an architect before. And they’ve never built anything before, never hired a builder before. Part of the architect’s job is to demystify the process. It’s not a magical thing that happens behind some green curtain. There are real, tangible people involved who care about the whole process.Phil: It’s true. They come to us because we’re good at what we do. We see things in a different way because that’s how we’re trained. But, my little tangent is this: I personally think architects have a PR problem. People think our egos and their dreams are going to be exceeded and cost them a lot of money, and they’re not going to be in control of the process. That’s sad. Our goal is to be a trusted advisor.Chris: As architects, we’re a different profession than we were 20 years ago.Phil: Absolutely. The idea of a master builder is nice, but we need a team to do all these things.Chris: So, let’s talk about that. The team member we’re going to talk about most right now is the builder. In the old days, Phil, you’d hire this master builder/architect who’d draw your plans, write your specs, hand them to you, and say, “This is the house you want.” And you’d take all that to every builder in town to get their budgets, and then you’d pick one. It’s called “going out to bid.”And commercially that still happens; the stakes are higher and you need that level of control. But with a house, the problem with that is the client is going to be paying the architect to protect them. If you have a good builder who’s on board and part of the team, though, you don’t need protection. The times have changed.Phil: Especially when we talk about sustainable homes.Chris: Speaking of green, I’d like to not introduce Dan Morrison. He was going to travel here.Phil: Dan is the executive editor of Fine Homebuilding and GreenBuildingAdvisor. We are very excited to almost have had him as a guest.Now that we’re doing these green homes…Chris: They take a higher level of focus, and not just from the builder. It’s even more important that the builder gets this stuff right. So choose the builder ahead of time.Phil: In integrated design, we get the builder on board early rather than go out to bid. We need a team to make the sure the details we’re drawing are going to be built properly. And also, it’s a check for us. We’re architects; we don’t swing hammers. If we’re not careful and screw this stuff up, it’s a huge risk for green building in general.I’ll tell you how we bring a builder in. Typically, there’s a schematic design, and then there is design development when pricing is set. It’s certainly before construction drawings; we don’t go out to bid. We advocate getting the drawings done to a certain level to get the builder to set a price within 10 to 15 percent. We just ask for an estimate. Then we ask the client to hire that builder, and then we form a team.We’ve had issues with bringing builders in really early in the process, having to do with cost control. They offer an estimate based on sketches; they’re hired, and then we do the construction drawings. The building costs then go way out of control.Chris: Clients listening to this say, “That’s other people, not me.” Well, it is you. It would be me, if I were building my house. There’s a compulsion for everyone to hear what they want to hear. Let’s say the builder quotes a house between $250,000 and $400,000. That’s a massive range; if they quote you that, it practically means nothing. The client walks away thinking, “All right, if we do everything the architect says, we’ll be at the low end of that range.”Phil: If we bring builders on too early, the client thinks they’ve lost the competitive advantage. They have a little bit of regret.Chris: So, what do you do? On a recent project, in the design development phase, we hired two builders and paid them to come up with a ballpark price, within 15 percent. We got plans, elevations and a good wall section for a real complicated project, but we had to make allowances. We got two prices back, but you’re not choosing based just on numbers, but on a relationship. We hired one of the builders and said “sorry” to the other one, but at least they got paid a little.We’re afraid of builders offering up numbers too soon that are not based on enough information — we need plans, elevations, a good wall section, maybe schedules.Phil: Sometimes we push it to structural information — framing plans — to get more accurate bidding. In Part 2, we’ll talk to a few prominent builders to get their point of view.Chris: And we’ll make fun of them.Phil: It’ll be really interesting to see what kind of alignment there is between our thoughts and their thoughts. If we’re not completely aligned, then we need to work on that.Chris: It’s all about managing expectations. It’s all about being clear with the client and the builder.Phil: We can’t reiterate enough about clarity at the outset for program and scope, schedule, and budget. Have them written down somewhere. Be honest every step along the way.Chris: It’s like the key to a successful marriage — communication. Of course, really, it’s sex and money. Which is not the same with building and design; I’ve not had that project yet.Let’s leave it here. In Part 2, we’ll play “Three Questions” with the builders.Sheila, let’s bring in Jesse to play “What’s Bothering Jesse Thompson?” With us now is architect Jesse Thompson.Jesse Thompson: Why do we spend so much time talking about walls? With each other, with clients, with builders, probably code officials.… Yeah, there are more walls than roof in a house. Maybe they are important.Phil: I get it. When you’re talking to a colleague about a house, they say “It’s got R-40 walls.” We always begin with the walls. What did you get in the walls? I’ll judge you from there.Jesse: In Passivhaus consultant training, we talk about moisture profiles in walls. We get clients with detailed lists of technical aspects they want in their buildings. Well, let’s go back and talk about the house first, then about what’s the right thing to do. We get clients who are as quality obsessed about the guts of their building as they are about …Phil: It’s a paradigm shift.Jesse: Well, they’re coming fast. They sit up all night reading GreenBuildingAdvisor before they talk to anyone. It’s playing defense on their part; they realize there are good buildings and crappy buildings.Phil: Remember when low-e first became a big thing? People didn’t understand it. They just thought they were getting crappy windows if they weren’t low-e. Now they want more insulation in the walls.Jesse: If someone wants a SIP house, we can talk about 10 different ways of doing the walls. We don’t spend as much time talking with clients about the roof or the basement or the foundation in the same way. Let’s talk about the whole building, not just obsess about the walls. The framing is 25 percent of the cost. We still have 75 percent of the house to talk about — like nontoxic materials. There are other things going on here, to try to get a building ready.Chris: Jesse, this segment’s starting to bother me. See you next time. Subscribe to Green Architects’ Lounge on iTunes—you’ll never miss a show, and it’s free! It’s one thing to design a house, and it’s another thing entirely to turn that design into a physical reality. In this episode, we kick back with an autumn cocktail (the Northern Spy) and talk about the process of bringing on a builder and the challenges of keeping relationships, quality, cost, and expectations managed along the way.Hey, do you want to talk about wall sections? Too bad. Jesse joins us for our “What’s Bothering Jesse?” segment, and he lets us know that he’s a little tired of all the attention that walls command from the green community. So, we’ll talk about that instead.The Highlights:The Northern Spy: Fresh apple cider makes this is a great cocktail for the fall season. It also makes a great beverage for toasting one of the great creators of our time, Steve Jobs, who passed away on October 5th. Here’s to you, Steve, without whom we would likely not even have a podcast. Also, I failed to mention in the podcast that this is a fairly modern drink, and as such, credit can and should be given to its creator Josey Packard of Alembic in San Fransisco.What defines a successful project? A happy client, to be sure, but also a happy architect and a happy builder.The architect’s public relations problem. We discuss how the architect is widely perceived by the public and builders.What’s the process? You could go out to bid, but we think a team approach is better.Bringing the builder in early? Here are the pros and cons. Pro: You get some cost control and input on methodology, but this must come with some understandings. Con: Did you lose your competitive advantage? What assurance do you have that you are getting the best bang for your buck?Have and set clear expectations. Like a good marriage, good communication is critical.What’s bothering Jesse? Walls! (Bet you didn’t see that coming.) RELATED CONTENT Integrated DesignThinning the Herd: How to Pick the Best Eco-BuilderDon’t forget to check back in later for Part 2, where we play “Three Questions” with three prominent green builders and get their input on this subject. Also, we tip our hats to some fellow Mainers for the work they’ve done, and of course Phil finishes with a song you should be listening to while you design.Thanks for listening. Cheers.
TweetPinShare0 Shares David Price, Jon Lester and John Lackey were among the big names changing teams in a flurry of deals on baseball’s trade deadline day July 31.With all but a few teams still in genuine contention for the playoffs in what is a remarkably even season, many made upgrades to their roster.World Series champion Boston, mired in last place in its division, was the most busy. The Red Sox sent Lester and outfielder Jonny Gomes to Oakland in exchange for slugger Yoenis Cespedes, traded Lackey to St. Louis, dealt shortstop Stephen Drew to the New York Yankees and moved pitcher Andrew Miller to Baltimore.Miami, often sellers as deadline day approaches, became buyers when they acquired pitcher Jarred Cosart from Houston in a six-player trade.Teams can still make trades through Aug. 31 to have players eligible for the postseason, but it becomes tricky. Now a player must first clear waivers, meaning every club in the majors has a chance to claim him before he can be traded.A look at the deals, and what they meant:SEE YA, RED SOXA year after winning their third crown in a decade, Boston bailed out. The Red Sox picked Oakland as the landing spot for the coveted Lester, then swapped Lackey for St. Louis pitcher Joe Kelly and outfielder Allen Craig.“It speaks to where we are as a team,” Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington said. “There’s nothing sort of celebratory about this. These moves are made because, collectively as an organization, we haven’t performed well enough, in this year anyway.”STRAIGHT A’SLooking for its first World Series title since 1989, Oakland kept dealing. After getting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs in July, the team with the best record in the majors added Lester and outfielders Gomes and Sam Fuld.PRICE IS RIGHTA lot of teams wanted Price, who now joins an intimidating rotation for the Tigers alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Austin Jackson went from Detroit to Seattle while pitcher Drew Smyly and minor league infielder Willy Adames joined Tampa Bay in the three-team swap.“The question that we asked ourselves is: What gives us the best chance of winning the world championship this year?” General manager Dave Dombrowski said. “We thought adding him to our rotation at this point would give us the best chance to do that.”CABRERA CRIES FOR CLEVELANDAsdrubal Cabrera was moved to tears as he talked about being traded from Cleveland to Washington for infielder Zach Walters. The trade came a day after the Indians sent pitcher Justin Masterson to St. Louis.“This was the team that gave me the opportunity to play,” Cabrera said. “It’s hard. It was like I grew up here.”“That’s the business,” he said. “It surprised me a little bit, but there is nothing I could do. I knew this was going to be possible. Today when I got here, I didn’t even know it was happening.”
It’s not just Seager that has Dodgers fans drooling. Twenty-two-year-old rookie sensation Cody Bellinger launched 39 home runs and knocked 97 RBIs in 2017 to lead the Dodgers in both categories, and is a frontrunner for the NL Rookie of the Year award. LA also has 21-year-old left-handed starting pitcher Julio Urias, who missed much of 2017 with a shoulder injury, but is still one of baseball’s most promising talents. And there’s more. LA has one of the top-ranked minor-league systems in the game, so there are even more talented Dodgers to come. Which is likely why they opened the offseason as 2018 World Series favorites.Houston Astros (88.6 wins per season)2017 Elo Rating: 1575.0 (15th)2017 batting WAR: 36.5 (5th)2017 pitching WAR: 17.0 (42nd)2017 average age, batters: 28.8 (21st-youngest)2017 average age, pitchers: 28.5 (17th-youngest)For Houston, it’s been a completely different journey to the top. The Astros were really bad for more than half a decade, when they averaged an MLB-worst 69 wins between 2006 and 2014. But while the organization floundered at the major-league level, the Astros’ front office steadily stockpiled the organization’s minor-league system with high-ceiling talent through the draft and international free agency.In 2006, Houston signed a 16-year-old named Jose Altuve for just $15,000 — Altuve is now a three-time reigning AL batting champion. In 2009, they drafted Dallas Keuchel in the 7th round of the draft, and he went onto win the AL Cy Young award in 2015. Two years after that they drafted George Springer out of Connecticut, who this week was crowned World Series MVP. Then in 2012, the Astros selected shortstop Carlos Correa with the No.1 pick in the draft — this year Correa had the team’s second-highest Wins Above Replacement in the regular season.Put that all together and Houston had the largest WAR of any team in MLB from their homegrown players in 2017. They’ve done their time at the bottom, and now with their star trio leading the way, it’s Houston’s time to shine. Baseball’s best young shortstopsIn a player’s first three MLB seasons, most wins above replacement (WAR) while playing at least half of games at shortstop 21Phillies1470.926.526.6220.127.116.11 20Braves1466.528.629.615.09.079.3 10Cardinals1514.628.028.124.114.682.8 5Yankees1570.728.727.628.824.085.8 11Brewers1510.527.318.104.22.1682.7 1Arky Vaughan1932-3442917.3 10Cal Ripken, Jr.1981-8326812.5 7Nomar Garciaparra1996-9831813.8 4Cubs1546.026.630.826.915.587.5 Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs 1Dodgers1581.627.729.729.921.390.0 TEAMELO RATINGBATTERSPITCHERSBATTERSPITCHERSPREDICTED WINS/SEASON WAR is an average of the metrics found at FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs Which MLB teams have the brightest futures?Most predicted wins over the next five seasons, based on 2017 team characteristics 14Rangers1497.128.428.922.214.171.124 2Indians1596.7126.96.36.1992.589.2 9Charlie Hollocher1918-2032612.6 25Orioles1474.228.628.015.47.378.0 17Angels1512.829.929.217.412.679.9 15Royals1477.328.930.312.914.380.3 19Mariners1506.629.627.922.410.479.8 6Corey Seager2015-1731414.1 3Francisco Lindor2015-1741116.2 7Red Sox1549.927.328.419.222.884.8 12Rays1505.628.327.624.012.081.5 9Twins1509.827.129.726.58.484.1 29Giants1465.829.629.07.112.176.8 8Diamondbacks1534.428.328.319.425.884.1 5Rogers Hornsby1915-1720714.5 13Marlins14188.8.131.527.12.581.0 18White Sox1463.926.728.915.15.879.9 16Rockies1506.428.526.614.920.380.0 AVERAGE AGEWAR Of course, it’s also worth noting that although the Dodgers currently project for the most future wins of any current MLB team, the Astros rank third. Sandwiched in second place between the two World Series participants are the Cleveland Indians, who were upset in the ALDS by the New York Yankees but still had one of the most impressive seasons of any team in recent history. Across their entire roster, Cleveland was a little younger than either the Dodgers or Astros, so they should be a force to reckon with for the foreseeable future. Add in other up-and-coming teams (such as the Yankees) and old standbys (such as the Cubs), and 2017’s glut of good teams should continue into next season and beyond. 3Astros1575.028.828.536.517.088.6 26Padres1447.826.028.08.55.378.0 23Athletics1491.528.727.617.110.378.9 PLAYERYEARSGAMES AT SHORTSTOPWAR 22Reds14184.108.40.2062.81.279.2 6Nationals1550.729.029.923.223.485.4 24Pirates1486.528.3220.127.116.118.1 4Carlos Correa2015-1736015.0 8Glenn Wright1924-2642213.3 27Mets1460.329.127.318.67.777.6 2Johnny Pesky1942-4743316.8 30Tigers1442.929.728.413.69.876.8 28Blue Jays1496.618.104.22.1687.577.5 Hope you didn’t get sick of the Astros and Dodgers, because you’re going to be stuck with them for a lot of Octobers to come. Based on our analysis of all MLB teams since 1988,1That’s when free agency truly began to reshape the way teams build following a period of collusion between owners. this year’s Astros and Dodgers each appear to have two of the brightest futures for any pair of World Series teams ever.Here’s how we figured that out. We gathered data on all MLB teams from 1988 to 2012 and tried to see which factors best predicted their win totals over the following five seasons. After testing different combinations,2Specifically, variable selection was performed using the Lasso. we found that five metrics emerged as significant predictors of a team’s future record: A team’s Elo rating through the end of the World Series (which contributed about 33 percent to a team’s future win projection); its batting wins above replacement (WAR)3Averaging together the versions found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com. (29 percent); its pitching WAR (13 percent); and the average ages — weighted by playing time — of its batters (6 percent) and pitchers (12 percent) — plus a bonus for making the World Series (7 percent).4Winning the World Series, while all sorts of fun, didn’t predict much for the years to come, after accounting for all this other stuff.Unsurprisingly, having a talented young core (especially on the hitting side) is a good ticket for a return trip to the World Series. After running the numbers for the final two teams standing this year, here’s how the Dodgers and Astros stack up against the other 56 World Series teams in our data set:Los Angeles Dodgers (90.0 wins per season)2017 Elo Rating: 1581.6 (11th)2017 batting WAR: 29.9 (18th)2017 pitching WAR: 21.3 (21st)2017 average age, batters: 27.7 (5th-youngest)2017 average age, pitchers: 29.7 (33rd-youngest)Despite losing to the Astros in Game 7 on Wednesday, LA appears to have the brighter future of this year’s World Series teams, albeit only just. The Dodgers are projected to win about 90 games per season for the next five years, but that’s nothing new to them. Since 2013, the Dodgers have averaged an MLB-best 95 wins per season and were twice denied a shot at the World Series. The bulk of this year’s production for the Dodgers has come from a mix of young phenoms and veteran stars. Turner, Clayton Kershaw and 23-year-old Corey Seager were the top three WAR contributors to the Dodgers. Seager has emerged as one of the premier players in the league and, with just three years of MLB experience to date, he ranks sixth all-time for the most WAR among shortstops in their first three seasons. Although he was up and down during the playoffs — he missed the NLCS with a back injury and hit just .237 in the postseason — Seager is one of the biggest reasons LA’s future looks so bright.